May 2024 Jobs Recap: Job openings trending up but NFP forecast is below consensus

Key Takeaways:

• New Job Openings trend higher after a slide in April. Continuing this year’s trend, this month’s gains balance out last month’s losses. But the listing dip last month will likely have curtailing effects on this month’s NFP report.

• LinkUp is forecasting 125,000 new jobs for May, considerably below the consensus estimate of 180,000. This is a somewhat concerning downward trend, but it’s nowhere near disastrous. While we project that a monthly addition of 180-220,000 jobs to NFP rolls will be the minimum requirement for unemployment to remain below 4%, data from one month is not sufficient to determine a pattern of lasting decline. Especially as our job opening data for May indicates a stronger NFP report for June.

• While 55% of Occupations experienced an increase in job openings, 61% of industries underwent decline. This includes a significant 25.3% reduction in job openings within the Transportation and Warehouse sector, due largely to hiring slashes at FedEx. Because the industries that did chart increased hiring activity tended to be larger sectors—like Finance & Insurance and Public Administration—average job openings across the economy still edged out to positive territory.

• Construction jobs are one of the growth stories this month, with a 3.8% increase in openings over April, and significantly, a 38% increase YoY.

LinkUp's real-time job data provides an early glimpse into hiring activity, offering valuable insights before official economic reports are released. Dive deeper into our in-depth analysis of May's job data below.

U.S. Job Listings by Month | January 2020 - May 2024

CLOSED DURATION

The entire U.S. economy tracks hiring velocity by measuring closed duration, or the average number of days that companies post job listings on their websites before removing them. As the average number of days a job listing remains live increases, hiring velocity slows.

Last month, job listings remained open for an average of 46.0 days; 11.9% longer than the 41.1 day average in April. This is a positive trend compared to the beginning of the year, when the average closed duration was significantly higher at 50.8 days.

Closed Duration of U.S. Jobs | January 2020 - May 2024

JOBS DATA BY STATE

In May 2024, job growth continued across the United States with two-thirds of states experiencing an increase in job listings. New Jersey led the pack with a significant jump of 17.1% which is due to a large company being added to our database during the month. Washington (6.8%), Connecticut (6.1%), and Hawaii (5.9%), were the three states with growth exceeding 5%.

However, not all states saw positive trends. South Dakota took the biggest hit with a 9.2% decrease in job listings. Montana (-6.6%), Nevada (-4.7%), and Alaska (-3.0%) also experienced notable declines exceeding 3%.

Percent Change in Active Job Listings by State (Month-Over-Month) | May 2024

JOBS DATA BY INDUSTRY (NAICS)

• Contraction: A majority (61%) of U.S. industries witnessed a decrease in job postings during May 2024.

• Largest Decline: The Transportation & Warehouse sector experienced the most significant decline (-25.3%) due primarily to reduced hiring at FedEx.

Industries with Decreases:

• Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (-5.6%)

• Accommodation & Food Services (-3.4%)

• Other Services (-3.0%)

Industries with Increases:

• Educational Services (+7.8%): It is important to note that this increase is attributable to LinkUp's recent inclusion of additional public schools in its indexing, not a surge in government hiring.

• Finance & Insurance (+5.6%)

• Public Administration (+4.1%)

Job Listings by Industry (NAICS) | May 2024

JOBS DATA BY OCCUPATION (O*NET)

While a majority of U.S. industries experienced a decline in job postings during May 2024, a contrasting trend emerged within occupations. Over half of job listings indicated growth in specific professions.

Growing Occupations:

• Educational Instruction & Library (+22.1%): This increase is due to LinkUp's recent inclusion of additional public schools in its search rather than a surge in government hiring.

• Protective Services (4.5%)

• Construction and Extraction (3.8%)

• Community/Social Service (2.9%)

• Life, Physical, and Social Science (2.4%)

Declining Occupations:

• Architecture/Engineering (-6.1%)

• Legal (-3.6%)

• Food Preparation and Serving (-3.6%)

• Office and Administrative Support (-3.6%)

Job Listings by Occupation (O*NET) | May 2024

LINKUP 10,000

The LinkUp 10,000 is a daily and monthly analysis that shows the number of job openings from 10,000 global employers with the most U.S. job openings in LinkUp’s dataset.

The LinkUp 10,000 climbed 0.5% in May compared to April, following a decline in the prior month. Over the past three months, the LinkUp 10,000 has seen a cumulative increase of 0.3% and on a year-over-year comparison, the LinkUp 10,000 is down 10.5%.

Monthly LinkUp 10,000 | January 2021 - May 2024

If you’d like more granular economic data or would like to look deeper into specific industries, occupations or companies, request a sample or demo of our data.

COMPANIES ADDED

LinkUp surpassed its previous record for new company indexing in May 2024. The platform successfully added 1,874 employer websites to its database, exceeding the prior record of 1,537 set in April. This achievement signifies LinkUp's ongoing expansion and commitment to providing comprehensive company information.

Contact us if you are interested in obtaining the complete list of recently added companies.

LINKUP MONTHLY FORECASTS

Get ready! Our forecast for the BLS JOLTS report is coming next Wednesday, before the official data release. This report provides valuable insights into the job market, including the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations across various industries and company sizes.

But that's not all! We also offer a monthly forecast for the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, based on our exclusive RAW LinkUp job listing data. This forecast sheds light on potential growth or decline in job openings across the entire U.S. economy.

DATA DISCLAIMERS

LinkUp’s monthly data recaps incorporate revisions to previously-reported monthly data with the purpose of reporting the most accurate and up-to-date data points. For more information on what circumstances may impact data revisions, visit our Data Support Center.